After a successful end of the 9th parliament poll of Bangladesh, a number of research organisations, survey companies and statistical institutes have started their analysis on voter turnout, number of votes obtained by the party contested and regional position of the parties. Most of the news organisations, including print and electronic, are giving results of analysis on the election. Here is an unofficial calculation and analysis that could be helpful to the readers to understand the number game of recent national elections of Bangladesh.
As per the unofficial data of the votes cast in 9th parliament poll of Bangladesh, held in December 29, Awami League (AL) bagged about 25 percent more votes compared to 2001. The party secured 40.13 percent of popular votes in 2001, which got jumped up to 49.02 percent this time around.
On the other hand, the number of popular votes cast for Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the just concluded 9th parliamentary election got reduced by 20 percent compared to its gain in 2001 election. In 2001, BNP had got 40.97 percent of the votes cast which got reduced to 32.74 percent on December 29, 2008.
These numbers clearly indicate a sharp swing from BNP to AL among voters, at least by 20 percent. AL got over 12.1 million votes in recent poll than it had in 2001, which is 11.4 million votes more than what its archrival BNP got on Monday. The gap this time is bigger too.
This election also set a new record in voter turnout, as 87 percent of registered voters voted compared to 2001 election's 75.59 percent. In contrast to Awami League’s gain in the latest election, the number of votes cast for BNP on Monday remained almost static compared to the number in 2001, although this poll saw over .60 million new voters.
BNP had bagged 2,28,33,978 votes in 2001 fielding 252 candidates, while in the just concluded poll the party got 2,30,86,460 votes nominating 259 contenders and winning 29 seats. BNP got 32.74 percent of votes cast in the latest poll, a sharp decrease from 40.97 percent got in 2001.
In 2001 the gap between the numbers of votes gained by BNP and AL was only 4.684 million, but the difference between the numbers of seats won by the two parties was 131. In the latest poll, AL obtained 3,45,64,068 votes which is 49.02 percent of the total number of votes cast, nominating 263 candidates and winning 230 seats. In 2001, the party nominated candidates in 300 constituencies and grabbed 2,23,65,516 votes, but managed to win only 62 seats.
The percentage of votes cast for AL climbed about 9 percentage point compared to the percentage of votes it got in 2001. This rise led to AL's landslide victory, creating a new record of winning a two third majority by a single party since restoration of parliamentary democracy in 1991.
In 1996 election AL secured 1,58,82,792 votes which was 37.44 percent of the total number of votes cast while BNP got 1,42,55,986 votes or 33.06 percent. In that poll, the total number of voters was 5,67,16,935.
In an unofficial calculation, 7,05,14,919 out of a total of 8,10,58,698 registered voters cast their votes in 299 constituencies in the December 29, 2008 parliamentary election, which is 87 percent , the highest record of votes cast in any parliamentary election in the history of Bangladesh.
Kazi Mohoshin Al Abbas is a freelance journalist based in Dhaka. He can be reached at mabbas1961@yahoo.com
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