Modi will be crowned again, says pre poll survey

NI Wire

New Delhi

Thu, 15 Nov 2007: 

Nov 15: Gujarat is ready to go for elections next month and the first pre poll survey on Gujarat assembly has indicated a turn down in the BJP’s vote but the party is on the edge to get majority to form the government.

The poll surv suggests an increase of 5% lead over its arch rival Congress in the voting share.

It is projected that if the lead continues the BJP will get around 100 seats with 45% vote share and Congress will have to be satisfied with 76 seats with 40 % vote share.

Most interesting part of the survey is that the voting share of BJP was 50% in 2002 elections and 39 % for Congress but this time Modi seems to have climbed up the popularity chart with 40% votes which was 38% in 2002.

But any deviation from the present survey will lead to a close war of seat tally in the assembly.

There is also a probability that a one percentage drop in the five percent lead will keep both parties dangling with none of the party getting the required number of seats that is 92 in a house of 182 seats.

The survey was conducted by CNN-IBN, The Indian Express and Divya Bhaskar under the team led by Yogendra Yadav of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in over 240 locations in Gujarat, a total of 3779 people participated in the survey in 60 Assembly constituencies.

The survey says that 63% (an increase of 4% from 2002 election) of the participants were satisfied with Modi’s Government, an average 50% vote went for the improvement in power supply, roads, drinking water and government schools condition.

39% voters indicated an increase of corruption while 60% were dissatisfied with the rising price.

This poll survey will leave BJP beaming in joy, which has come with the punch line Jeetega Gujarat and CDs with the slogans and party symbols are given a final touch for distribution, the party plans to show the CDs on Vandhe Gujarat an internet TV across the state.

As usual this time too the party which said that the thrust of their campaign will be development but they are also ready with the issues like Rama Sethu, Terrorism, power supply to appease the Hindu voters

Although all the precautions have been taken by the conductors of pre poll survey, yet the issue has always echoed in the galleries of Election Commission about the methodology and its character which might influence the voting behaviour.

Pre poll has become an established feature of the election by Media, though it tells the direction in which the results are likely to come it may not always be true

Whole nation will zero in on Gujarat on December 11 and 16 for its assembly elections when the Congress party has taken all the steps to change the guard there.