India confident to crack the deal at IAEA

Today is the rewarding day for India in its hectic diplomatic bilateral parleys with different nations as the crucial meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would give its nod for the India specific safeguards agreement-the first key step for the operationalisation of Indo-US civilian nuclear deal.

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It is believed that agreement will get approval. With the successful crossing of this first key step, India will be left to face another hurdle-tougher than IAEA- the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG). However, after IAEA’s approval, the NSG is expected to soften its guidelines to allow nuclear trade with India. The date for NSG meeting is scheduled between August 21-23 in Vienna.

With the final approval of draft agreement, India’s 14 off 22 existing or planned nuclear reactors will come under the supervision to the United Nations nuclear watchdog, IAEA. And, after the NSG nod, India will be the first exceptional nation to avail the sensitive nuclear material and technology without signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Without IAEA safeguards, India cannot import nuclear technology from NSG nations, including the U.S.

Despite some of the IAEA members’ suspicion and criticism about the ambiguous text of the deal that it could terminate international oversight of India’s reactors, and might help supply of its arms programs with fissile material, India is confident of IAEA’s nod. Recently, constant bilateral parleys with all 35 IAEA member states particularly 19 of them who are also members of the NSG have infused confidence into India and raised its hope of getting approval of the IAEA as well as of NSG.

Earlier, on July 19, IAEA Board of Governors had said that India is yet to remove all ambiguities pertaining to its draft safeguards agreement and the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation deal as well. They were of the opinion that the safeguards agreement gives India too much discretion in deciding what facilities would be monitored and when the IAEA would start doing so.

Pakistan, who had also demanded a similar deal, has already pointed the deal as discriminatory in nature. Before Thursday, it was being much expected that Pakistan-also a member of IAEA Board of Governors- who has been vocal in its opposition to the deal will call for voting on the matter. But, Washington’s pressure on Pakistan has reportedly sent it at back foot.

As far as Pakistan’s demand for a similar deal is concerned, analysts say, it has been stopped in its track owing to clandestine nuclear Wal-Mart set up by the former head of its nuclear programme, AQ Khan.

The nuclear deal will not only allow India nuclear commerce with NSG nations but also assist India in meeting its energy requirements. Today, India is mostly dependent on coal-which contributes in the emission of green house gases- for its energy requirements. The nuclear energy will help India to overcome the blame of producing much green house gases. In this way, it will also address issues of global warming by reducing carbon emissions.

In simple terms, India will be capable to produce 20,000 MW by 2020 without concluding the deal, but the deal that would permit it to buy reactors and n-fuel will enhance its capacity to 40,000 MW by the same year, 2020.

After the IAEA Board’s approval, the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group will hold meeting to consider special exemption for India as it’s not a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The US Congress would then go for the ratification of the nuclear pact prior to the end of President Bush’s term in Jan 2009.