D-Day for UPA after a futile debate

After Monday's debate on confidence motion, it has been abundantly clear that Left, BJP and all other oppositions had nothing concrete which could reflect their oppositions on the nuclear deal. Not a single member logically explained their disagreement which could convince the people across the country that nuclear deal was against the interest of India.

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Instead of holding debate on nuclear deal over which the two-day special session of confidence motion was called on, most of the leaders in opposition to the deal distracted to other issues-that could be an election issue later- like price rise, Amarnath Shrine Board's land issue etc. particularly this time, when it had no relevance to the nuclear deal.

Today, is the day of reckoning for the UPA as it faces trust vote in Lok Sabha. UPA's looking full of confidence to win the trust vote also gets reflection from its leader-the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's posture that it showed before entering Parliament Monday-- winning sign, thumps up and more over that a confident smiling face hardly seen on his face.

However, the way to win is not as easy as it seems to Prime Minister. After hard bargaining and going the way full of thrones, the pro and against the deal narrowly differentiating in the number game have reached at the climax of political play where a single vote could turn the story as a whole.

UPA is claiming to have 276 votes in its bag- UPA's (237), SP's (39) - five more than the required magical number. In fact, the UPA has included the exaggerated number of 39 MPs as five MPs of Samajwadi Party have openly defied and announced to vote against the government on trust vote. Poaching, horse trading, wooing, last night either for support or abstentions could also alter the number either in favour of UPA or against it.

The one party which surprised the Left and BSP yesterday was the Bhartiya Janata Party. The lenient approach on the deal by the PM-in-waiting candidate L K Advani during debate on Confidence Motion in Lok Sabha shocked the entire oppositions and forced them to reconsider whether Advani was supporting the deal.

Advani's calculated statement that BJP is neither in opposition to the deal nor has any prejudice against America like Left. It is protesting the deal because of its present format and the deal between 'equal' and 'unequal'. He also announced that if NDA comes into power, it will make deal with America, but as equal partners.

Advani's change of tone was an apparent signal that BJP had changed its strategy towards nuclear deal and the trust vote.

It all occurred because of Maya's reach to UNPA and the Left's back up to her projecting Maya as 'Acting Prime Minister' in case of fall of the Congress-led UPA government. BJP is afraid of Maya as she could ruin the PM-in-waiting's dream to be PM after Lok Sabha polls.

Maya's factor has compelled the Saffron Party to rethink its strategy against the trust motion and yesterday's speech was a reflection of plan.

BJP now thinks government's survival is more advantageous to it than its fall. If the UPA loose the trust vote, credit will go to Left and BSP. BJP will have no benefit. But, if UPA wins the trust vote, it will reduce Maya to her lowest ebb with the help of CBI.

On the other hand, Maya would try to incur a huge loss on Congress in terms of ruining its decaying Dalits and Muslims vote. That would be followed by BJP which will strike back on the decaying Congress with a spate of price rise, farmers' distress and terrorism and internal security.

Another fear haunting BJP is that Congress might get sympathy vote in case of government's fall. UPA's survival means- malign to Maya resulting into safety of PM's chair after the Lok Sabha elections.

All these political calculations have forced the BJP to back off from the active opposition on the nuclear deal. This way, the Saffron party is looking forward to kill two birds with one stone.

Coming next to Congress, it is in a position where it can say: “Chit bhi meri, Pat bhi meri (heads I win, tails you lose). Congress believes its win is few hours ahead. And, if unfortunately, it fails to win, then would declare itself as 'martyr' for the country on the deal. Certainly, the deal could be poll issue that might go in favour of Congress in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

For the villain in this entire political drama, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), options are very few. Whether it could support Mayawati as a prime minister by backing a Third Alternative or also propose its candidate as PM and keep the BJP out of play, if UPA fail to scrape through the trust vote.