Fate of Congress hangs on UNPA's stand

The beleaguered Congress could heave a sigh of relief today, if the result of the UNPA (United National Progressive Alliance) meeting that would be held here today goes in its favour.

It is a different kind of examination in which the candidates are the leaders of UNPA, particularly Samajwadi Party, but the outcome of the paper (here, meeting) would determine the fate of Congress-led UPA government whether it passes the examination or succumbs to it. Means, the result would determine the final decision of the Manmohan Singh's government on the fate of the nuclear deal.

The Samajwadi Party-led UNPA is made up of the eight political parties such as TDP (Telugu Desam Party), AGP (Asom Gana Parishad), and INLD (Indian National Lok Dal-of which the SP would discuss to thrash over a common approach to the nuclear agreement. But at the backdrop of opposition from TDP and AGP, which are against the nuclear deal, the Samajwadi Party could have to face tough resistance to make them agree to support the government.

Either the Samajwadi Party with its 39 valuable Parliamentarians could participate in the government or support from outside, if the no-confidence motion is presented in the House against the ruling government.

The Samajwadi Party brass, however, is of the view that support from outside does not make any sense. The party could participate in the government, but at its own conditions. The SP's parliamentary board that met here on late Wednesday also signalled the same. It said the party could cut its losses, which it would incur after aligning with the government, by demanding a major price for its support.

Sources say that demand, though not sure, tops the list includes inclusion of its members, at least 10, in the ministries. The second demand, which would be utmost difficult for the Congress to meet is the changes in the portfolio of key ministers. Broadly speaking the party want to remove some of the ministers holding key posts in the government, first the Finance Minister P Chidambaram, who is the axis of the government's deciding economic policies followed by the Petroleum Minister Murli Deora. The party alleges these two ministers are responsible for soaring inflation.

The decision on removing the key ministers would be quite difficult for the Congress when it has no option left other than SP's support to sustain the government, if the Left withdraw support.

On the other hand, the Left, which was quite unequivocal of its decision to pull out support if the Prime Minister goes to participate in the G-8 summit, which would be in itself signify the government's approval to go for the deal, has softened its adamant approach by saying it would withdraw support only when the government declares to go with the IAEA.

Meanwhile the Samajwadi Party general secretary, Amar Singh late on Wednesday met with the National Security Advisor chief, M K Narayanan, to seek clarification on the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement and to meet his suspicion on it. The discussion focussed on some vital issues such as embargo on India’s right to carry out a nuclear test, right to re-process and the right to test.

Regarding Hyde Act, Narayanan said India is bound by the 123 Agreement and substantive rights and obligations under the Agreement are not affected by the national laws of the parties. He also told Mr. Singh that the deal would neither impinge on our strategic programme nor would affect our nuclear sovereignty.

However after the meeting, Amar Singh in order to assure his UNPA allies sought public clarification from the Prime Minister himself.

Later in the night the PMO issued a detailed assurance on preserving national and nuclear sovereignty. “India is not under any pressure, not can it be pressurised to follow a course of action that is not dictated by our enlightened self-interest.”

Regarding Samajwadi Party's suspicion about the deal would impinge on our relation with Iran, the PMO clarified that the ties with Iran were time honoured and civilisational in nature and no outside influence or pressure could force India to deviate from its path.