By the Right, Quick March

New Delhi, July 11 (ANI): Photographs can be eloquent in their message and no captions are needed.

A recent picture in the Dawn newspaper of Pakistan has Awami Muslim League Chairman Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, fresh from a trip to the U.S. along with Jamaat-ut-Dawa chief and founder of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Hafiz Saeed, the co-chairman of the Difah-e-Pakistan and father of Taliban, Maulana Sami-ul Haq who also runs Pakistan's second largest Darul Uloom madrassa, (Jamia Haqqania), Syed Munnawar Hasan, the Jamaat-e-Islami chief and retd ISI chief Lt Gen Hamid Gul, on stage together.

It is obvious this is a meeting of Pakistan's most powerful radical anti-US anti-Jewish and anti-Indian combine. Not in the photograph but equally important in this jihadi Politburo were Maulana Ahmed Ludhianvi, leader of the radical Sunni and rabidly anti-Shia Sipaha Sahaba now renamed Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat and Fazlur Rehman Khalil ,founder of the Harkat ul Mujahedeen, which had been responsible for the hijacking of the IC 814 in 1999.

This galaxy was meeting to discuss the future course of action to protest against the Pakistani decision to reopen the land routes for NATO supplies.

Other pictures of the day were thousands of supporters of the Difah-e-Pakistan out on the streets of Lahore waving mostly the black and white striped flags of Jamaat-ut-Dawa.

The long march had reached Islamabad on July 10 and would reach Torkham on July 16-17. Another group was scheduled to reach Chaman from Quetta on July 14-15.

The speeches were true to form. Sami-ul Haq said "This long march is against the Crusaders (US) and the Jews." Hafiz Saeed added his bit when he said, "Pakistan's original problem is slavery to the US. We won't accept it. We want freedom." The favourite slogans with the crowd were "Death to America," "One solution for America, jihad, jihad."

This kind of a reaction from the religious right to the Pakistani decision to reopen the NATO supply routes was expected. It is still early days to judge whether this campaign by the religious right, discretely supported by elements from Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik Insaf and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Musliim League, will be able to put enough pressure on Islamabad and more importantly Rawalpindi.

It is widely believed that the Pakistan Army has used the Difah-e-Pakistan as a pressure tactic against the Americans ever since relations between the two countries began to sour last year.

However, it is always very difficult to calibrate such movements and their responses; they tend run out of control and begin to have a life of their own.

The Pakistani military leadership, followed by the political leadership, had miscalculated the US resolve especially in an election year and after Osama bin Laden had been killed in Pakistan.

It was President Obama himself who had said that there 'had to be some sort of support network for bin Laden inside Pakistan.' This was as close as he would get to accusing Pakistan of harbouring bin Laden in a fortress close to the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul. In the end, the U.S. apology was really a condolence message about loss of life and not an unqualified apology.

Having pushed the country to the brink, it will be difficult for a weak government in Islamabad to put a stop to the protests. Having encouraged anti-Americanism, the army may not be able to reverse the trend.

The radical mullahs will increasingly call the shots. They will increasingly become liabilities for the Army in the future. For instance, Maulana Fazlur Rehman has been close to Ayman al-Zawahiri and it would suit Al Qaeda to ensure that Pakistan-US relations remain sour.

Unable to get the financial concessions from the Americans (Pakistan had demanded an enhanced fee per truck of US $ 5000 up from US $ 250), nor did the US agree to stop the drone attacks, Pakistan agreed to the next best deal.

The Northern supply route (NDN) through Central Asia and Russia was costing US $ one million a month, but a cash-starved Pakistan lost a billion dollars during the stoppage. Unless the cash started flowing in and the IMF was kind, Pakistan was going to be in a financial mess. Its choices were limited in the end.

The usual spin has been attempted by sections of the Pakistan media. It has been depicting the US Department of Defence and the CIA who would no longer play the spoilers between the two countries as the prime losers.

So also the NDN countries in Central Asia and Russia as they would be losing revenue. Inevitably, India is portrayed by the spinmeisters as the biggest loser on the grounds that Pakistan remains crucial to US interests in the region, in this stand-off.

A perceived loss by India is still the biggest victory in many sections of Pakistan and a measure of a successful foreign policy.

Elsewhere, it was business as usual for other terrorist groups in Pakistan. Al-Badr Mujahideen, a breakaway faction of Hizbul Mujahideen group, organised a two-day 'Shuada Conference' in the Swan Adda area of Rawalpindi on July 8 to seek recruits and raise funds.

The group's chief Bakht Zameen Khan announced that his commanders were seeking funds to keep the 'jihad' going in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

Sectarian and other violence continued during the week indicating the deteriorating law and order situation. There was continued violence in Karachi where 12 persons including a senior officer of the Intelligence Bureau was shot dead.

There were more Shia killings in Balochistan when 18 Shia pilgrims were killed on July 6. An army post in Gujrat, Punjab was attacked by motorcycle and car borne terrorists on July 9 killing seven soldiers.

Pakistan completed its obscurantist image by disowning once again, its only Nobel Laureate Abdus Salam because he was an Ahmediya and therefore not accepted as a Muslim in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the Judiciary, the Executive and the Military have been fighting their own battles for supremacy and survival. The Executive presented a draft bill -Restructuring Security Services - proposing internal accountability of the ISI on July 8 only to be withdrawn a few days later upon sane advice from elsewhere.

As the Supreme Court expanded the bench for hearings on the implementation of the National Reconciliation Ordnance where the newly appointed Prime Minister Ashraf was expected to depose on July 12.

Pre-empting the possibility of a contempt charge, the PPP government pushed through an amendment to Redefine Contempt of Court Legislation on January 11, which would provide immunity to the Prime Minister. This many-sided tussle among the civilians only means that the Army will continue to gain in credibility and strength.

At the end of the day, when all the shouting is over, it must be remembered that the US will not walk away from Pakistan just yet, may be never. There may be one change though, post-2014.

US-Pakistan relations will become increasingly transactional as it is unlikely that any government in Washington will be able to trust any government in Islamabad. By Vikram Sood (ANI)